Japan PM Ishiba's Approval Ratings Surge Amid Election Performance Review

Ishiba's Rising Popularity Raises Questions About His Political Future

Foreign media reports indicate a substantial increase in the approval ratings of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in local media polls. This comes as observers prepare to assess the performance of last month's elections, a result that may determine his political fate.

Polls conducted by Kyodo News and Yomiuri Shimbun over the weekend revealed a rise of over 10 percentage points in Ishiba's approval ratings, with a majority of respondents believing he should remain as Prime Minister. The Kyodo poll indicated a 12.5 percentage point increase to 35.4%, while the Yomiuri poll showed a jump of 17 percentage points to 39%. Another poll by Mainichi Shimbun also showed a 4 percentage point increase to 33%.

Furthermore, the Kyodo poll revealed an 11.6 percentage point decrease in the proportion of respondents who believe Ishiba should resign. Currently, 57.5% of respondents believe he should remain in office, while only 40% believe he should step down.

Reasons Behind Ishiba's Popularity Surge

According to analysis by Yomiuri Shimbun, the conclusion of a trade agreement between Japan and the United States, as well as the government's announcement of increased rice production to combat significant price increases, may be among the reasons contributing to the Prime Minister's rising popularity. This highlights the importance of economic policies in shaping public opinion.

Future Projections

The Mainichi Shimbun poll also showed Ishiba as the respondents' top choice to become the next Prime Minister, although other polls had differing results. In the Kyodo poll, approximately a quarter of respondents chose hard-line conservative Sanae Takaichi as the next leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), while about a fifth supported Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi. Ishiba came in third with 13.1% support. The Yomiuri Shimbun poll results were generally consistent with those of Kyodo.

Ishiba now faces a critical moment, as the LDP is expected to finalize its investigation into the results of July's "humiliating" election. The ruling coalition lost control of the upper house of parliament at that time. Local media reported that the findings of this investigation are expected to be released in early September, rather than the originally anticipated date at the end of this month. It is widely believed that this conclusion will clarify who is responsible for the election loss.

The resignation of senior party members close to Ishiba could weaken his position within the party, but it could also be a way to publicly take responsibility, thereby allowing Ishiba to continue as Prime Minister. Despite voices within the LDP calling for Ishiba's resignation, there is no established procedure that can force a sitting Prime Minister to step down.

Meanwhile, a party committee is studying whether an election for the party leader can be held earlier than scheduled, rather than waiting for Ishiba's resignation or even until the end of his term in 2027. Typically, amending the schedule for the party leader election requires the support of a majority of LDP members of parliament and representatives of local branches.

However, with Ishiba's popularity rebounding and his insistence on remaining in office, the momentum for a leadership change may weaken. Currently, the momentum for changing leadership has not gained as much traction as expected after the election. Previously, three losses by the LDP of the majority in the upper house led to the resignations of the Prime Ministers at that time. However, forming a cabinet when neither house controls the majority may make Ishiba's opponents hesitant to push for a party leadership contest at this time.

At the same time, Ishiba consistently emphasizes his determination to remain in office, considering ongoing challenges, such as the tense regional security environment, as important reasons to avoid a political vacuum.

Last weekend, he met with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, pledging to deepen cooperation on a series of common issues, including North Korea's denuclearization and addressing aging societies. The two sides also reaffirmed their commitment to trilateral cooperation with the United States. Lee Jae-myung will travel to the United States for the first time on Monday to meet with President Trump.