Week ahead: RBA poised to hike?

Here are the week’s key events: 

Global central banks have hit the pause button – or have they? The Reserve Bank of Australia is in action this week and could restart the hiking cycle. Meanwhile UK GDP figures and Chinese inflation data are among the main economic releases on the calendar. Earnings season continues on Wall Street and in Europe – watch out for day-trader favourites Roblox (RBLX), Twilio (TWLO), Unity Software (U), Walt Disney (DIS) and AMC Entertainment (AMC). 

Monday  

The week kicks off with a smorgasbord of relatively low-level economic data – German factory orders and a raft of Eurozone services PMIs are among the early highlights. Look for the EZ Sentix investors confidence report and the latest construction PMI for the UK. Later on, the Canadian Ivey PMI is on offer.  Trading times are back to normal as North America switches off daylight savings. 

Earnings: Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Ryanair (RYA) 

Tuesday  

The Reserve Bank of Australia has tended to lead where other central banks have followed. So it will be vitally important for markets to see what the central bank opts to do this week. Inflation rose more than expected in the last quarter and the pressure on the RBA to hike at least once more. Markets have tended to think that there was always one more hike left in the RBA. So, if it does hike at this meeting then the question is more about whether there is another to go. Lots of earnings including EV makers Lucid and Rivian. 

Earnings: Viatris (VTRS), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Lucid Group (LCID), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Rivian Automotive (RIVN), Uber Technologies (UBER), Associated British Foods (ABF), Persimmon (PSN), Beazley (BEZ) 

Wednesday  

Earnings provide the main focus for the day as a number of day-trader favourites including Disney and AMC Entertainment release their numbers. Three top ARK Innovation ETF holdings – Twilio, Unity Software and Roblox are due to report too. It’s a big day for European companies too with Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, DHL, Airbus and Adidas in action. On the economic data front, New Zealand inflation expectations and the final reading on German inflation are among the highlights. A US 10yr bond auction is also worth watching. 

Earnings: Roblox (RBLX), Twilio (TWLO), Unity Software (U), Walt Disney (DIS), AMC Entertainment (AMC), Marks & Spencer (MKS), Flutter Entertainment (FLTR), Adidas (ADS), Airbus (AIR) 

Thursday  

China’s inflation rate is again in focus. Consumer inflation was flat in September and producer prices declined more than expected. China’s CPI came in at 0.0% yoy vs forecast +0.2%, PPI fell 2.5% yoy vs f/c -2.4%. The PPI inflation figures are taken as a useful leading indicator for global consumer inflation pressures, whilst the CPI is seen as a proxy for domestic Chinese demand. Weekly unemployment claims data from the US will be in the usual spotlight as market participants try to figure out whether the labour market is ever going to crack. 

Earnings: Auto Trader (AUTOA), Astra Zeneca (AZN), B&M Retail (BMEB) 

Friday  

Following its decision earlier in the week, the RBA releases its monetary policy statement. UK GDP figures and industrial production numbers are due out and may have some limited impact on sterling crosses.  Lending data from China will be watched as a gauge of the economy’s health. Preliminary UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations are due during the US session. 

Earnings: Allianz (ALV)