Friday Jun 2 2023 13:16
3 min
OPEC+ meets on Sunday June 4th, setting the tone for the energy markets over the next week. Meanwhile the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada are among the major central banks with uncertain decisions to make over interest rates. Inflation data from China will also be watched.
Here are the week’s key events:
Oil is the big focus following Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting. Russia’s oil minister Novak suggested there would be no new production cuts at the June meeting – comments he was later forced to walk back. Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, warned oil short sellers to “watch out”. But that didn’t stop short positioning in oil jump ahead of the meeting. Elsewhere we look to Swiss inflation and US ISM services data.
There was hawkish talk from the RBA in May, with the Australian central bank saying that "some further tightening" may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a "reasonable timeframe". Markets and economists think the RBA will hike again this year, just not necessarily at today’s meeting. The expectation is that it will deliver one more 25-basis-point interest rate increase by end-September to 4.10%.
It’s the turn of the Bank of Canada, which is facing pressure to raise rates again. Statistics Canada reported April CPI inflation rose to 4.4 per cent from a year ago, a faster pace than the 4.1 per cent expected. BoC governor Tiff Macklem has remained pretty tight-lipped about whether it will hike again. The BoC has been on pause for the last meetings after a rapid hiking cycle that saw the benchmark rate rise 4.25 percentage points in a year. GameStop earnings are due out.
Japan’s lending and final GDP numbers set the tone in Asia ahead of revised GDP figures for the Eurozone later. US weekly unemployment claims will be the main focus though as traders look to see what cracks – if any – might be appearing in the labour market following on from the previous week’s nonfarm payrolls report. DocuSign earnings will be interesting.
China’s CPI and PPI inflation readings will be of note – factory gate prices from the world’s second largest economy are a useful leading indicator for global inflation. Lending figures for China are also tentatively scheduled for release from today, as is the latest US Treasury currency report. Elsewhere, Canada’s employment report will be eyed.
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