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USD/CHF Consolidates Around 0.8050, Awaiting Fundamental Catalysts

星期四 Aug 21 2025 09:00

2 最小

1. USD/CHF: Technical and Fundamental Overview
1.1 Trade Balance: A Closer Look
1.2 Swiss Exports (MoM)

USD/CHF: Technical and Fundamental Overview

The US Dollar found support at 0.8025 on Wednesday, keeping the pair within its recent weekly range below 0.8090. Investors are keenly awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech for insights into the central bank's monetary policy strategy. The Swiss Franc (CHF) is under pressure as Swiss Trade Balance data reveals a weakening export sector. Wednesday's recovery in the US Dollar, which peaked around 0.8090 against the CHF, was capped just above 0.8020, resulting in the currency pair trading sideways within a 70-pip band for more than seven days. Market participants are exercising caution on Thursday, resulting in relatively light trading volumes. Later today, the US preliminary PMI and jobless claims releases could provide some direction for the US Dollar. However, significant breakthroughs beyond the current range are unlikely until after Powell's speech on Friday. Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, facing renewed political pressure to consider lowering interest rates. The market anticipates insights into whether the weaker-than-expected labor market data released earlier in the week has swayed the Fed chief toward contemplating a rate cut in September. Powell's commentary will likely dictate the near-term direction of the US Dollar. The Swiss Franc is on the defensive today, impacted by disappointing trade figures. The Swiss trade surplus declined to CHF 4.59 billion in July from CHF 5.79 billion the previous month, primarily driven by a 2.7% decline in exports ahead of potential trade tariffs. It's important to understand that trade balance figures are lagging indicators.

Trade Balance: A Closer Look

The Trade Balance, reported by the Federal Customs Administration, measures the difference between a country's imports and exports. A positive number indicates a trade surplus, while a negative number indicates a trade deficit. Changes in these figures affect the domestic economy. A consistent demand for Swiss exports typically leads to a positive trade balance, which is generally favorable for the CHF. However, these numbers are backward looking and represent past economic activity.

Swiss Exports (MoM)

Exports of goods and services, as reported by the Federal Customs Administration, encompass transactions involving the sale, barter, gifts, or grants of goods and services from residents to non-residents. Declining exports may signal a weakening Swiss economy. Analyzing export data alongside other economic indicators can offer a more comprehensive view of Switzerland's economic health.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer: This article represents only the author’s views and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice or financial guidance, nor does it represent the stance of the Markets.com platform. Trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs) involves high leverage and significant risks. Before making any trading decisions, we recommend consulting a professional financial advisor to assess your financial situation and risk tolerance. Any trading decisions based on this article are at your own risk.