Pfizer Bets on Weight Loss Drugs with Metsera Acquisition

After a period of challenges, including the recent termination of its danuglipron program, Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) has announced plans to acquire Metsera (MTSR), a pharmaceutical company specializing in obesity treatments. The announcement sent Pfizer's stock up by 2.1% as of 12:25 p.m. ET.

Acquisition Details

Pfizer will pay $47.50 per share upfront to acquire all of Metsera's stock, with potential milestone payments of $22.50 per share upon achievement of certain drug development milestones. The total deal value could reach $7.2 billion. Metsera focuses on developing incretin and amylin-based therapies, and its pipeline includes: * MET-097i: An injectable GLP-1 weight loss drug in Phase 2 clinical trials. * MET-233i: An injectable GLP-1 drug in Phase 1 clinical trials. * Two preclinical oral GLP-1 candidates.

Pfizer's Valuation and Risks

This acquisition represents a significant investment for Pfizer, which has a market capitalization of over $136 billion. While Pfizer's price-to-free-cash-flow (FCF) ratio is reasonable, its $50 billion in net debt (primarily from prior acquisitions) inflates its enterprise value-to-FCF ratio to 15. Given analyst expectations of shrinking profits for Pfizer in the coming years, this investment carries significant risk. The success of this acquisition hinges on Metsera's drugs gaining regulatory approval and achieving projected sales. If these drugs fail, Pfizer could end up paying twice the value of Metsera stock and significantly reduce the return on investment.

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