yen-drops-to-five-month-low-against-usd-market-focus-on-future-movement-and-potential-intervention

日圓兌美元跌至五個月低點,市場關注日圓走弱風險

週一,日本日圓兌美元跌至五個月來的低點,受美國國債殖利率上升的支撐,且年末市場流動性稀薄,導致大多數貨幣在狹窄的區間內波動。

截至目前,日圓兌美元報157.82,距離近幾個月高點160還有一定距離,而如果未來無日本當局干預,市場可能再次測試這一水準,此水準上次出現於今年7月。

美元指數對主要貨幣的匯率維持平穩,報107.99,顯示市場情緒在假期時相對穩定。


歐元維持在 1.0429 美元附近,全年跌幅近 5.5%

歐元兌美元(EUR/USD)報1.0429,接近近期低點,且在假期期間穩定波動中。根據目前的趨勢,歐元全年對美元預計下跌約5.5%。

美國國債殖利率的上升,尤其是10年期國債殖利率最近突破七個月來的高點,為美元提供了強勁的支撐。週一,10年期國債殖利率維持在4.625%,顯示出市場對美國利率政策仍然持有高度關注。


美元匯率年終漲勢顯著,政策影響推升美元強勢

儘管多數分析師預測2024年美元將走弱,但從今年的表現來看,美元匯率仍有望在年終收高,成為主要貨幣中表現最為穩定且強勢的一個。

美元指數自年初以來已累計上漲6.6%,並在過去三個月持續攀升,顯示市場對美國總統川普的政策,如放寬監管、減稅、提高關稅與收緊移民政策,對經濟的促進作用持樂觀態度,這些政策有助於推高美國國債殖利率,進一步支持美元匯率。

另一方面,日圓匯率則面臨著更多的挑戰,自12月3日以來,已大幅下跌10日圓,至158.09的七個月新低,年內跌幅達到10.6%。儘管最近日銀在政策會議中顯示出部分官員對即將升息的樂觀態度,並減少了月度債券購買,但日圓的低利率仍然成為壓力點,市場對日銀能否短期內大幅調升利率存疑。

此外,市場對日本政府可能干預的風險仍然存在。日本財務大臣加藤勝信日前重申,將會密切關注日圓走弱情況,若日圓持續疲弱,可能會採取行動穩定匯率。


市場觀察與展望

總結而言,美元在年末展現出強勢,並且市場預期即使在 2024 年,美元在主要貨幣中的優勢將持續。至於日圓,儘管有升息預期,但面臨低利率與市場干預的壓力,可能無法完全回到強勢水平。而其他貨幣則相對穩定,主要維持窄幅波動。



在考慮股票、指數、外匯(外匯)和商品的交易及價格預測時,請記住,交易CFD涉及較高風險,可能導致資本損失。 過去的錶現不能作為未來結果的指示。此信息僅用於提供信息,不應被視為投資建議。

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