Beyond the Hype: Diebold Nixdorf and Recursion Pharmaceuticals as BigBear.ai Alternatives

BigBear.ai (BBAI) has taken investors on a rollercoaster ride in 2025. The good news, though, is that they're probably enjoying the ride these days. Shares of the artificial intelligence (AI) software company are up more than 70% year to date. Will BigBear.ai's momentum continue? Maybe. However, astute investors are always looking for potential outperformers. This analysis suggests two stocks that could be worth more than BigBear.ai five years from now.

1. Diebold Nixdorf

Diebold Nixdorf (DBD) might not grab headlines with the same AI buzz as BigBear.ai, but it was recently recognized by TIME and Statista as one of the world's best companies. This recognition stems from its robust business model and consistent performance. Many of the world's largest organizations rely on Diebold Nixdorf. The Ohio-based technology company boasts a customer base that includes a majority of the top 100 global financial institutions and top 25 global retailers. Diebold Nixdorf provides critical infrastructure for these businesses, offering solutions like cash recyclers, cash dispensers, teller automation systems, and self-service kiosks for banks. Its software applications also streamline checkout processes for retailers, improving efficiency and customer experience. These are essential services in the financial and retail sectors. Diebold Nixdorf's current market capitalization is just over $2 billion, significantly lower than BigBear.ai's $2.9 billion. However, several factors suggest Diebold Nixdorf has the potential to surpass BigBear.ai in market value. Notably, BigBear.ai's revenue experienced a significant 18% year-over-year decline in the second quarter of 2025. While Diebold Nixdorf's revenue also decreased, the drop was a more modest 2.6%. More importantly, Diebold Nixdorf demonstrated positive momentum with a 9% revenue increase from the first quarter of 2025. This indicates a potential turnaround and strengthening business performance. Furthermore, Diebold Nixdorf concluded Q2 with a substantial backlog of approximately $980 million, providing strong revenue visibility for future quarters. The company has also achieved three consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow, demonstrating improved financial stability and cash generation capabilities. In contrast, BigBear.ai reported a backlog of $380 million at the end of Q2 and remains far from achieving positive free cash flow. Valuation metrics also favor Diebold Nixdorf. Its shares trade at a price-to-sales ratio of just 0.59, while BigBear.ai boasts a much higher ratio of 14.4. This suggests that Diebold Nixdorf is undervalued relative to its sales, presenting a potentially attractive investment opportunity. While Diebold Nixdorf may lack the prominent AI branding of BigBear.ai, the company is actively integrating AI into its solutions. Its Vynamic Smart Vision AI-powered shrink reduction technology recently earned France's LSA Tech AI for Business award, showcasing its commitment to innovation.

2. Recursion Pharmaceuticals

Predicting that Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) will exceed BigBear.ai's value in five years requires a degree of speculative thinking. The market cap difference between Recursion and BigBear.ai is substantial. Moreover, Recursion's primary revenue stream currently relies on collaboration agreements with larger pharmaceutical partners. However, the potential of Recursion lies in its AI-driven drug discovery and development platform. Traditional drug discovery methods face significant challenges, with approximately 90% of drugs failing in clinical trials after years of development and billions of dollars in investment. Recursion aims to improve these odds. Recursion utilizes AI to identify promising drug targets and design molecules to treat diseases, potentially revolutionizing the drug development process. This approach allows for rapid evaluation of numerous potential candidates, selecting the most promising ones for clinical testing, significantly accelerating the discovery timeline. Recursion currently has three experimental cancer therapies in phase 1 and 2 development. Additionally, it is evaluating another candidate in early-stage studies targeting familial adenomatous polyposis, a rare genetic disease. These clinical programs represent significant potential for future growth. The company is also attracting interest from major pharmaceutical players. Roche, Sanofi, Bayer, and Merck KgAA (the German drugmaker – not the U.S.-based Merck) have established collaborations with Recursion. This validates Recursion's technology and provides access to resources and expertise. Furthermore, Nvidia owns approximately 7.7 million shares of Recursion, demonstrating confidence in the company's AI-powered platform and potential. While the prediction regarding Recursion may not materialize, the innovative approach and strong partnerships suggest that this company has a solid chance of exceeding BigBear.ai's value in five years if its pipeline programs prove successful.