Tesla Optimus: A Glimpse into the Future of Robotics and Company Valuation

Tesla Optimus: A Glimpse into the Future of Robotics and Company Valuation

Following a meeting between Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Benioff shared a video on X purportedly showcasing the next-generation prototype of Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus. This video has sparked widespread debate about the robot's capabilities and the future of the company.

The video shows an Optimus robot with a gold-colored body, seemingly equipped with new features from the AI assistant Grok, answering questions and taking mechanized steps, indicating that it is still in the early stages of development. The exhibited prototype features several notable changes: a new gold design, and a more refined hand design. The hands currently look more like mannequin hands, but appear to lack functionality.

The Significance of Hand Design in Optimus

Optimus' hand design has always been an important part of the project, as the robot needs to be able to complete both delicate and heavy-duty tasks. Tesla aims to enable Optimus to complete actions such as threading a needle or playing the piano. Musk mentioned that the hand design for the next generation of Optimus will mimic humans, with fingers controlled by cables, similar to the structure of a human arm. This raises questions about the complexity and cost of developing such technology.

Optimus' Impact on Tesla's Valuation

The successful development and deployment of Optimus will represent a huge market opportunity for Tesla. If Tesla can efficiently launch Optimus in the coming years, it will provide companies with solutions for handling arduous labor, significantly increasing Tesla's market valuation. Musk recently stated that Optimus will be the main contributor to Tesla's future valuation, expected to account for 80% of the company's total value. However, doubts remain about Tesla's ability to achieve these ambitious expectations.

Skepticism about Optimus' Current Capabilities

Some users on X have raised doubts, pointing out that although there is a prevailing view in the market that Tesla's Optimus robot is far ahead, the actual situation seems quite different from this view.

Comparing the video content, Optimus appears slow in the demonstration, taking ten seconds to answer a simple question, and only starts moving when the other person is at least one meter away, with an overall slow walking speed. Although the exterior design of Optimus' hands looks exquisite, there is no display of movement, which also raises questions: is this really third-generation hand technology, or just a shell added to avoid imitation by competitors?

Comparison with Competitors like Figure Gen 2

This user pointed out that in comparison, the second-generation robot Figure Gen 2, recently showcased by the American humanoid robotics startup Figure, is more practical. It can complete a variety of everyday tasks, including packing items and scanning QR codes, putting clothes in the washing machine, folding cloth, and putting cutlery in the dishwasher. These demonstrations illustrate its ability for practical application in life scenarios, which is more practical and advanced than Optimus' current performance.

Tesla's Shift towards Robotics

Tesla is shifting its business focus to the field of robotics, and the Optimus robot project is highly anticipated. Musk encourages investors to focus on the future of self-driving cars and robotics technology, rather than just focusing on the current car business.

Challenges Facing the Automotive Business

The revenue share of Tesla's automotive business is decreasing. In the second quarter, automotive business revenue accounted for about 74% of total sales, but profits decreased due to a decline in car sales. In addition, Tesla will lose many electric vehicle incentives due to the new U.S. bill, which may further affect the profitability of the automotive business.

Accelerating Optimus Development

To face these challenges, Tesla is accelerating the research and development and production of Optimus robots. Musk said on an earnings call in July that Tesla plans to increase the annual production of Optimus to 1 million units in the next five years.

The Optimus 3 prototype is expected to be launched by the end of this year. This robot is designed to perform tasks such as factory work and housework, and is currently in its second generation, with the third generation under intensive development. The aforementioned golden Optimus may be the prototype of the third generation.

Musk believes that with the continuous advancement of robotics technology and the expansion of application scenarios, Optimus will become the main source of Tesla's revenue in the future.