Escalating Tensions: Israel and Syria Conflict Over Druze Minority Raises Regional Concerns

Escalating Tensions: Israel and Syria Conflict Over Druze Minority Raises Regional Concerns

In the wake of the turmoil in Syria last year, Israel seized the opportunity of Bashar al-Assad's regime's weakness to undermine its military capabilities. However, it didn't stop there; Israel sought to impose further demands on the new authority in Syria, most notably the establishment of a demilitarized buffer zone south of Damascus. It also pledged military intervention if necessary to protect the Druze minority living on both sides of the border. This increasing Israeli intervention has led to a sharp escalation in tension with the new Syrian leadership, exacerbated by the sectarian violence this week involving the Druze. In a scene reflecting the scale of concern and fear, Druze on both sides of the Israeli-Syrian border stormed the barriers erected by the Israeli army in a desperate attempt to save their families from the clutches of violence. Moreover, this situation has led to a more direct confrontation between Israel and Turkey, which supports the new Syrian government headed by Ahmed al-Sharaa. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan explicitly accused Israel of exploiting the Druze issue as a pretext to destabilize Syria, emphasizing that "the biggest problem in our region is Israeli aggression." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for his part, stated that Syria had crossed "two red lines" that prompted intervention. The first line is sending troops to the area that Israel demands be turned into a demilitarized zone, under the pretext of preventing militants from stationing there. The second line is allowing harm to the Druze, accusing the Syrian government of "slaughtering them." Israel's pledge to protect the Druze gives it an opportunity to showcase its military strength to its weaker neighbor and exert more control over the shared border. During the period of Assad's regime's weakness, Israel launched hundreds of raids on military targets inside Syria, making the Syrian government largely unable to respond. However, the question remains: have these Israeli raids stopped the sectarian fighting? Al-Sharaa's government asserts that its security forces have already withdrawn, but reports indicate continued clashes between local Sunni Bedouins and the Druze, whose religious roots trace back to an ancient branch of Shia Islam. Al-Sharaa, who was cautious in criticizing Israel at the beginning of his term, adopted a more strident tone after the recent Israeli raids. In a speech, he affirmed that his government had succeeded in stabilizing Sweida "despite Israeli intervention," accusing Israel of "targeting civilians and government infrastructure on a large scale to undermine these efforts, greatly complicating the situation and pushing it to the brink of comprehensive escalation." Under Assad's leadership, the Syrian-Israeli border was among the quietest in recent years. But Israel's demand to make the southern region demilitarized stems from its fear of Islamist forces reaching its borders, a fear that has increased after the Gaza attacks in 2023. This week's events revealed how difficult it is to maintain border stability, as hundreds of Druze stormed the border into Syria in an attempt to defend their relatives living on the other side. This sudden influx of refugees confused the Israeli authorities, prompting them to create crossings for their passage. Security analysts believe that although Israel should welcome the new Syrian government's pledge to establish an inclusive society, many doubt al-Sharaa's ability to control the country's numerous armed groups and whether the goals of rebuilding the state take precedence over his Islamist ideology. Yossi Kuperwasser, head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, summarizes the situation by saying: "There are two outstanding questions that I do not know the answers to. The first question: Is the new regime led by al-Sharaa able to solve this problem? And the second question: Do they have an interest in it? The answer to this question is not entirely clear either."

Potential Regional Impacts

The escalating tensions between Israel and Syria could have wider implications for the region. Any large-scale Israeli military intervention in Syria could provoke a response from other regional powers, such as Iran and Hezbollah, further complicating the situation and threatening to plunge the region into a wider conflict. In addition, continued instability in Syria could exacerbate the refugee crisis and lead to more refugees flowing into neighboring countries, increasing pressure on their resources.

Diplomatic Efforts

In these tense circumstances, diplomatic efforts are becoming increasingly important. The international community must pressure all parties involved to exercise restraint and avoid escalation, and work to find a political solution to the Syrian crisis that guarantees the rights of all Syrian components, including the Druze minority. Israel and Syria must also find a mechanism for dialogue and coordination to prevent incidents on the border and avoid unnecessary escalation.