NATO Considers Stronger Response to Russian Provocations: Armed Drones and Modified Rules of Engagement

NATO Weighs Options for Responding to Russian Provocations

According to four NATO officials familiar with the discussions, NATO allies are considering ways to deliver a more forceful response to Putin's increasingly provocative behavior. These options include deploying armed drones to the border with Russia and relaxing restrictions on pilots, allowing them to open fire on Russian aircraft.

These talks aim to raise the cost for Moscow and establish clear countermeasures following a series of airspace violations by Russian drones and fighter jets. Frontline countries bordering Russia, backed by France and the United Kingdom, initiated these discussions, which have now broadened to include a wider range of the 32-member alliance. Proposals include arming reconnaissance drones used to gather intelligence on Russian military activities and lowering the threshold for eastern border patrol pilots to shoot down Russian threats. Another option is to conduct NATO military exercises on the Russian border, particularly in those more remote and less defended areas along the NATO border line.

U.S. President Donald Trump stated last month that NATO should fire on Russian aircraft that violate allied territory. Trump's remarks followed a series of apparent provocations by Russia, including the first direct encounter between NATO aircraft and Russian drones since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Escalating Regional Tensions

In addition to the encounter in Polish airspace, Russian drones have intruded into Romanian territory, and MiG fighter jets have flown over Estonian airspace. Meanwhile, dozens of unidentified drones have caused widespread disruption at airports in Belgium, Denmark, and Germany, along with cyberattacks and deliberate sabotage, which some officials attribute to the same “hybrid warfare” launched by Moscow.

U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whittaker said last week that he is “working every day with allies to ensure “we have better options in responding to hybrid warfare.” He said the immediate priority is to “ensure we have layered response strategies to avoid things getting out of control.”

Unified Rules of Engagement

Two NATO officials said that one pressing issue is to unify rules of engagement. Some countries require fighter pilots to visually confirm a threat before engaging, while others allow them to open fire based on radar data or perceived danger based on the direction or speed of a hostile object. NATO did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The officials said the talks initially began among a small number of directly affected countries but have now evolved into a broader discussion as other allied capitals have recognized the wider threat posed by Moscow’s destabilizing actions.

One of the officials said that some countries are also pushing NATO to adopt a more aggressive posture as a means of deterrence. Other allies have suggested more conservative responses, as they fear the risk of direct confrontation with a nuclear power like Russia. “We’re actively discussing these issues, exploring how we can better and more effectively respond to Russia,” a NATO diplomat said.

He cautioned, however, that the talks are still in their early stages. Last month, NATO held two emergency meetings because of the events in Poland and Estonia and launched the “Eastern Sentry” mission to reinforce the air defenses of frontline countries.

All four officials cautioned that there is currently no agreed-upon timeline for any changes, and any shifts would likely not be publicized.

EU Response

While NATO is holding discussions, the European Union is preparing to take its own measures to respond to Russian provocations. These measures include restricting the travel of Russian diplomats in Europe—who intelligence agencies suspect of manipulating agents and carrying out sabotage in non-posted countries—and using EU funds to help deploy anti-drone defense systems.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday: “This is a deliberate and targeted grey zone operation against Europe. Europe must respond.” Speaking to the European Parliament, she said: “Russia wants to create divisions. We must respond with unity.” “We must not only react but also deter. Because if we hesitate, the grey zone will only expand.”

Analysis: While these discussions aim to deter Russian aggression, it's important to consider the potential risks of escalation. NATO must balance the need to show strength with avoiding any action that could trigger a wider conflict. Additionally, allies need to address the disinformation and propaganda campaigns that often accompany these provocations.