Lululemon Athletica: A Potential Recovery Story

Of all the companies in the S&P 500, Lululemon Athletica (LULU) has been among the worst performers this year. The stock has fallen 56% year-to-date, reflecting a series of internal and external challenges.

One of the key factors impacting the company's performance has been the removal of the de minimis exemption on imports under $800, forcing Lululemon to reorganize its distribution network. Additionally, there seems to be a fashion trend away from traditional activewear, impacting sales of the company's core products.

However, there are several reasons to believe that Lululemon can recover and emerge stronger. Here are five reasons supporting this prospect:

1. Management Recognizes the Shortcomings

Lululemon's CEO, Calvin McDonald, has shown a clear awareness of the challenges facing the company. He has acknowledged product misses and noted that the company relied too heavily on some core franchises for too long. The company is now taking steps to accelerate its go-to-market strategy and refresh its product lineup.

2. Business is Booming in China

While Lululemon faces headwinds in the U.S., its business in China is thriving. Comparable sales in China jumped 17% in the last quarter, making it a key growth market for the company.

3. Runway for New Stores

Lululemon continues to expand its store count, having opened 63 stores in the last four quarters. The company plans to open 45 additional stores in 2025, with a focus on China and Mexico.

4. History of Overcoming Challenges

Lululemon has faced similar challenges in the past and managed to overcome them. During the financial crisis, the stock plunged by more than 80%, but it eventually recovered and reached new all-time highs.

5. Attractive Valuation

Lululemon's stock is now trading at its lowest valuation ever, making it a potentially attractive investment opportunity for growth-oriented investors. The initiatives started by the CEO could pay off, consumer spending in the U.S. could recover, and the company's store count could grow.

While a recovery may take time, gaining some exposure to Lululemon could be a smart move for growth-focused investors.


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