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Quinta-feira Aug 21 2025 04:50
2 mín
The GBP/JPY pair is showing resilience in early Thursday trading but is struggling to make significant gains. This is primarily due to the noticeable divergence in monetary policies between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), acting as a headwind that limits the pair's upward movement.
Despite the hot UK consumer inflation figures released on Wednesday, the British Pound (GBP) finds it challenging to attract buyers. This is because markets are pricing in a 50% chance of the Bank of England cutting interest rates by the end of the year, a stark contrast to the relatively hawkish Bank of Japan. This divergence supports the Japanese Yen's (JPY) outperformance and weighs on the GBP/JPY pair.
In fact, the BoJ revised its inflation forecast at the end of the July meeting and reiterated that it will raise interest rates further if growth and inflation continue to advance in line with its estimates. Furthermore, the cautious market sentiment is seen as another factor weakening the safe-haven JPY.
However, uncertainty surrounding the potential timing of the next rate hike by the BoJ limits the bullish momentum of the JPY and supports the GBP/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the S&P Global flash Japan Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.9 in August from the previous month's final reading of 48.9, although it remained in contraction territory for the second consecutive month.
Traders are now awaiting the release of the flash UK Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for further impetus. In the meantime, the fundamental backdrop calls for waiting for robust follow-through buying before confirming a near-term bottom for the GBP/JPY pair. Monitoring these indices is crucial for assessing the health of the British economy and its potential impact on the Bank of England's monetary policy.
Important Note: This analysis provides an overview of the factors influencing the GBP/JPY pair and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer: This article represents only the author’s views and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice or financial guidance, nor does it represent the stance of the Markets.com platform. Trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs) involves high leverage and significant risks. Before making any trading decisions, we recommend consulting a professional financial advisor to assess your financial situation and risk tolerance. Any trading decisions based on this article are at your own risk.
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