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Donderdag Oct 16 2025 06:47
2 min.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver a significant speech to the National Association for Business Economics on Wednesday, marking his first major public appearance since the last monetary policy meeting. This speech comes at a crucial time, as the Fed faces significant challenges amid diverging internal views on the path of interest rates and a lack of reliable economic data.
At the September meeting, the Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.00%-4.25%. However, it revealed a sharp division among officials, with some seeing the need for further monetary easing this year, while others believe the current stance is sufficient.
Compounding the situation is the government shutdown that began on October 1st, which has suspended the release of key economic reports, such as employment and inflation data. This lack of data impairs the Fed's ability to make informed decisions, making Powell's speech all the more important.
Powell's speech will provide an opportunity to understand how the Fed intends to navigate monetary policy in this temporary "blindness." The Fed must balance "full employment" and "price stability," two goals that are currently at odds. A slowing labor market suggests potential weakness on the employment side, while inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target, complicating arguments for monetary easing.
Investors will carefully analyze Powell's words for any clues about his priorities. If he focuses on the labor market, it could mean that the door remains open for further rate cuts this year. However, if he emphasizes inflation, it could indicate that the Fed may pause at its next meeting in October.
Furthermore, Powell's speech comes before the media blackout period that precedes the monetary policy meeting. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, investors currently expect a 97% probability of a rate cut at the October meeting.
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