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NZD/USD: Bearish Momentum Persists, RSI Nears Oversold - OCBC Analysis

Donderdag Aug 21 2025 09:00

2 min.

Inhoudsopgave

1. Kiwi Under Pressure After RBNZ Decision
1.1 Bearish Momentum Remains Intact
1.2 Details of the RBNZ Decision
1.3 Governor's Comments
1.4 Technical Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels
1.5 Understanding Oversold Conditions

Kiwi Under Pressure After RBNZ Decision

The NZD/USD pair experienced a notable decline following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) recent policy decision. According to OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong, the New Zealand dollar was last observed trading around the 0.5820 level.

Bearish Momentum Remains Intact

"Bearish momentum on the daily chart remains intact."

Details of the RBNZ Decision

"The Official Cash Rate (OCR) was reduced to 3%, as widely anticipated, but the tone of the press conference and Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) was notably more dovish than expected. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 4-2 in favor of a 25bp cut, with the other 2 members voting for a 50bp cut. The OCR projection was also lowered to 2.55% in Q1 2026. OIS futures are pricing in a 40bp cut by the end of 2025. There are two more meetings remaining for the year – October and November – before the long break leading up to the February 2026 MPC meeting."

Governor's Comments

"Governor Hawkesby emphasized the 'strong consensus around the central path for the OCR'. While the RBNZ’s dovish cut and lower OCR track reinforce a downside bias for the NZD, the magnitude of the move will hinge on the USD leg. With Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday night likely to shape Fed easing expectations into September, we see scope for NZD/USD to test lower if the USD stays firm, but retracement risks if Powell leans dovish."

Technical Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels

"Bearish momentum on the daily chart is intact, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows signs of entering oversold conditions. Support lies at 0.58 (50% Fibonacci retracement of April low to July high) and 0.5730 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). Resistance is found at 0.5830 (200-day moving average) and 0.5880 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement)."

Understanding Oversold Conditions

The RSI, a momentum oscillator, indicates overbought or oversold conditions. When the RSI falls below 30, it typically suggests the asset is oversold, implying a potential for a price reversal. However, it's crucial to note that oversold conditions can persist for extended periods, especially in a strong downtrend. Traders often use the RSI in conjunction with other indicators and price action analysis to confirm potential trading opportunities. While a low RSI might signal a possible bounce, it's not a guaranteed indicator of an immediate price reversal. Considering other factors, such as fundamental news and overall market sentiment, is vital for making informed trading decisions.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer: This article represents only the author’s views and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice or financial guidance, nor does it represent the stance of the Markets.com platform. Trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs) involves high leverage and significant risks. Before making any trading decisions, we recommend consulting a professional financial advisor to assess your financial situation and risk tolerance. Any trading decisions based on this article are at your own risk.

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NZD/USD: Bearish Momentum Persists, RSI Nears Oversold - OCBC Analysis

Kiwi Under Pressure After RBNZ Decision

Bearish Momentum Remains Intact

Details of the RBNZ Decision

Governor's Comments

Technical Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels

Understanding Oversold Conditions

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