CrowdStrike's Fal.Con 2025 Investor Day: A Forward-Looking Analysis
CrowdStrike (CRWD -1.54%) did not treat Investor Day at Fal.Con 2025 as a routine update. Management leaned into what matters most to long-term shareholders: the cadence of net-new recurring revenue, the durability of its platform expansion, and the margin profile that can fund it. The market took notice, and shares jumped by double digits around the event as investors absorbed the new trajectory.
Below are five forward-looking data points from the presentation that stood out, with quick context on why each matters for investors.
1. Strong Back-Half ARR Growth
After a choppy 12 months following CrowdStrike's high-profile July 2024 outage, management said net new annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth should accelerate to 40% or more in the second half of fiscal 2026 (ending Jan. 31, 2026). That's the clearest signal yet that renewals and expansions are normalizing -- and that newer modules are doing their job pulling larger deal sizes.
For a subscription model, sustained improvement in net new ARR is the earliest tell for next year's revenue and cash flow. This is a critical metric as it shows the health of the company's sales and marketing efforts, as well as the overall demand for its cybersecurity solutions.
2. 20%+ Growth for Net New ARR in Fiscal 2027
Investor Day guidance went further out than near-term forecasts. CrowdStrike guided for more than 20% growth in net new ARR for fiscal 2027. This implies an acceleration since ending ARR year-over-year growth reported in the cybersecurity specialist's most recent quarter was 20%.
If achieved, that cadence would imply a healthier mix of cross-sell -- identity, next-gen security information and event management (SIEM), cloud security -- and steady core endpoint wins, supporting a platform narrative rather than a single-product story. The risk is obvious: Execution across multiple growth vectors must be nearly flawless -- but the upside is a compounding ARR base with improved unit economics. This requires significant investment in R&D and sales, but can drive long-term profitability.
3. $10 Billion in ARR by Fiscal 2031
CrowdStrike reiterated its long-term ambition, which continues to anchor the model: reaching $10 billion in subscription ARR by fiscal 2031. Framed against today's run rate, this target assumes the platform keeps expanding wallet share inside the base while breaking into adjacencies at scale.
Investors should view this as a comprehensive plan for sales coverage, channel leverage, and product velocity, rather than just a number on a slide. The target milestone also provides a clean yardstick for progress at future Investor Day presentations.
4. $20 Billion ARR by Fiscal 2036
Showing how confident management is in its long-term growth runway, CrowdStrike set an even longer-term target than its 2031 goal: ARR of $20 billion by fiscal 2036. It's an audacious marker, but its inclusion is useful for shareholders as they look out to the horizon.
To bridge the gap from $10 billion to $20 billion in roughly five years, CrowdStrike will need durable double-digit growth, continued expansion into high-attach modules, and commercial models such as Falcon Flex that raise the average account value. Ambition is not execution, but the compounding math here is why the stock trades at a premium.
5. 30%+ Free-Cash-Flow Margin by Fiscal 2027
Growth without leverage isn't enough. Fortunately, management paired the ARR ambitions with profitability targets: a non-GAAP (adjusted) operating margin of more than 24% and a free-cash-flow margin of over 30% by fiscal 2027.
For investors, this is the underpinning of the bull case: If ARR reaccelerates while margins expand, valuation can stay elevated even as growth moderates, because cash generation could outpace top-line growth. A strong free-cash-flow margin demonstrates the company's ability to efficiently manage its resources and convert revenue into actual cash, which can be used for reinvestment, acquisitions, or shareholder returns.
Altogether, CrowdStrike just set a higher bar on what its platform should deliver over the next two to 10 years. Assuming CrowdStrike delivers on these targets, the stock's current valuation might make sense.
The catch is that every one of these numbers assumes strong execution across product, sales, and customer success -- while fending off capable rivals in endpoint, identity, and SIEM. Whatever happens, CrowdStrike's Investor Day presentation made the scorecard crystal clear.
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