South Korea's Lee Jae-myung Dodges 'Zelenskyy Moment' with Trump: Analysis

Lee Jae-myung and Trump's Meeting: Assessing Risks and Opportunities for Cooperation

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung successfully avoided what he called a 'Zelenskyy moment' during his meeting with former US President Donald Trump. Despite pessimistic expectations and a difficult start marked by Trump's controversial statements on social media, the summit ended relatively positively, alleviating fears of open conflict.

This was the first meeting between the two leaders, and it was largely considered a success by analysts and observers, as South Korea managed to avoid the worst-case scenario, a replay of Trump's summit with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy earlier this year.

Hours before the meeting, Trump posted on social media questioning the situation in South Korea, describing it as a "purge or revolution". He indicated that he would raise this issue with Lee Jae-myung during the meeting.

Trump had previously expressed concern about ongoing investigations in South Korea targeting churches and military bases. He claimed that Korean police had carried out "very nasty raids" on churches and searched US military bases, suggesting that these actions might be linked to churches supporting former President Yoon Suk-yeol.

However, after Lee Jae-myung clarified that the searches were limited to South Korean-controlled parts of the joint base and were related to a domestic political crisis, Trump softened his tone and described his earlier statements as a "misunderstanding" and "rumors". Lee Jae-myung's office stated that he did not raise the issue again during private talks.

During an event at the Center for Strategic and International Studies after the summit, Lee Jae-myung joked: "Before meeting President Trump today, he posted a very threatening post on Truth Social."

He added: "My team was very worried that we would face a 'Zelenskyy moment'."

However, Lee Jae-myung explained that he was confident that this would not happen because he had read Trump's book "The Art of the Deal".

He noted that he had observed that Trump often starts by imposing harsh conditions in negotiations with other countries, but ultimately reaches a reasonable conclusion. "Because of the importance of the US-South Korea alliance, I was confident that he would not harm the alliance. Everyone advised me to be patient," he added.

Subsequently, an atmosphere of flattery and cordiality prevailed in the leaders' talks in the Oval Office, and Trump also spoke of his "good relationship" with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Professor Leif-Eric Easley of the Department of International Studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul described Lee Jae-myung's appearance in the Oval Office as "much smoother than expected", noting that Trump not only expressed support for Lee Jae-myung's approach to the North Korean issue, but also showed a positive attitude towards communicating with Kim Jong-un.

Xinhua News Agency reported that Trump said his relationship with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un was "very good" and that he hoped to meet Kim Jong-un this year. He added: "He (Kim Jong-un) and I have a good relationship. I think his country has tremendous potential and a bright future."

Although the summit did not witness "dramatic scenes", according to Cheong Seong-chang, vice president of the Sejong Institute in Seoul, he also pointed out that ambiguity meant that South Korea's political goals were not achieved, including seeking US approval to reprocess nuclear fuel and amend US shipbuilding laws.

For his part, Yang Uk of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul pointed out that Trump's pressure on South Korea indicates that he is well aware of the amount of benefits he can obtain from South Korea. He added: "(Trump's) basic equation is to intimidate the other party as much as possible first, and then get what he wants, and that is what happened this time."

Jun Kwang-woo, Director General of the Global Economic Institute, said: "Trump did not embarrass Lee Jae-myung."

He added: "Trump probably does not now have the energy to create tensions with Lee Jae-myung at a time when he is already experiencing disputes with other countries."

However, there are still important issues pending between the United States and South Korea, including the amount of contribution that South Korea will bear for the stationing of 28,500 US soldiers in South Korea, and many details that have not been finalized in the tariff agreement that was reached hastily. During the meeting, Trump suggested that South Korea transfer ownership of some of the "large military bases" of the US military stationed in South Korea to the United States to get rid of the issue of "rent".

In addition, in the economic field, Trump mentioned that he does not mind renegotiating the trade agreement reached in July, if the Korean side wants to, but this does not mean that the Korean side will get more. For his part, Lee Jae-myung said that South Korea is ready to participate in the revitalization of manufacturing that the United States is calling for, especially the shipbuilding industry.

Hours after the meeting, Korean Air announced that it would buy 103 Boeing aircraft with a total value of approximately $50 billion, which is the largest deal in Korean aviation history.